A Standing Bounty on What You Have Not Announced
Someone Is Betting on What You Know
Spring 2026 brought the first federal insider trading prosecutions over prediction market event contracts, and August brought research flagging suspicious wallets on military contracts. This brief reads that record from the principal's side, asking what a listed contract on an unannounced decision means for people near the answer, and whether the market can signal a leak. Built from indictments, regulatory orders, exchange disclosures and named reporting. For family offices and counsel setting monitoring and conduct policy.
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