The death is the trigger. The narrative war is the event.
In the first minutes or days after an event, the account people believe forms before verified facts or official statements arrive.
More on narrative and influence →JFK 2026 series
The front door to the JFK 2026 narrative warfare scenario: what the series models, how its documents fit together, and where a reader should start.
How it happensEarly-window capture
JFK 2026 series
The full scenario analysis, from the first synthetic witness at minute two to a self-sustaining domestic narrative ecosystem by day seven, with adversary playbooks and the economic cascade that follows. Scenario analysis, not prediction; every tactic described has a documented precedent from 2013 to 2024.
How it happensEarly-window capture
JFK 2026 series
Eleven simulated posts, each labelled as fabricated for analysis, showing eleven documented adversary tactics and one complete narrative attack cycle step by step through the content itself.
How it happensAlgorithmic selection
JFK 2026 series
The analyst companion to the JFK 2026 scenario: instrument maps, the vulnerability matrix, the full precedent evidence base, coordination analysis and methodology, for analysts and decision-makers.
How it happensBroker modeling and activation
JFK 2026 series
The response doctrine for a narrative crisis, minute by minute: six phases, three decision thresholds, five operational priorities, pre-approved holding statement templates, a synthetic media triage tree and a misidentification escalation matrix.
How it happensEarly-window capture
JFK 2026 series
The video treatment of the JFK 2026 thought experiment and the accessible entry point to the series: prepared adversaries, synthetic witnesses, and domestic influencers who carry the payload without knowing where it came from.
Serial CMB-26-293-AM · Day 235
Day 235, and today’s focus is a single chain running from the Gulf to the streets of Europe: the CENTCOM-region fuel squeeze is now the detonator of the worst European unrest in years, and it is reshaping both domestic politics and energy diplomacy. France is the epicentre — nationwide rioting and looting on 17–18 October drew a televised address from President Macron (‘anger and shame’; rioters who ‘sought to bring down the Republic’ would ‘pay’), roughly 2,300–2,400 arrests over the weekend and about 1,000 police injured, with PM Lecornu ordering partial curfews.
Federal Trade Commission complaints against Gravy Analytics, Mobilewalla and InMarket give the most detailed public account of what the location data industry infers from movement records. This brief works that enforcement record backward to the derivation steps behind it, asks which inferences matter most to a protected person, and tests whether current rules reach them. Built from the complaints and orders, peer-reviewed mobility research and recent state privacy statutes. For security and legal functions assessing a principal's movement exposure.
How it happensPattern-of-life and behavioral inference
A True Document, Quoted Against You
On 18 August 2026 the Army posted a routine market survey for discontinued Bradley parts, and within two days Russian state media had recast it as a story about broken equipment for Ukraine. Using that specimen, this brief asks what an organization obliged to publish can do when a genuine document is quoted under a frame it did not choose. Built from the notice, compared line by line with hostile and independent coverage. For communications, legal and monitoring functions.
How it happensTrue-fact reframing
Count the Voices, Not the Noise
When a principal comes under sustained online attack, an early decision turns on whether the voices are as numerous and independent as they appear. This brief sets out a working vocabulary for coordinated inauthentic activity and a disciplined way to assess a wave, including what any finding must show. It draws on platform enforcement definitions, documented operations and the firm's casework. For principals, communications teams and counsel deciding how to respond.
How it happensCoordinated amplification
The Story Arrives Before the Proof
A May 2026 white paper from the Polish Institute of International Affairs on Russian sabotage across the Baltic Sea states, and the November 2025 attacks on a Polish rail line, occasion this brief. It asks why attribution in such cases stays open so long and what fills the interval. It reads the paper's primary sources against official statements, prosecutions and an appellate reversal. For principals and communications advisors preparing for an incident whose cause may stay unproven.
How it happensPre-placed narrative
Your First Hour Was Written Last Month
CB-057 described the interval in which an early account of a crisis outruns the verified facts, and left open what an institution should do inside it. This brief distills the firm's published response doctrine for that first hour and asks how an institution tells which response the moment still permits. Built from the doctrine, peer-reviewed diffusion research and documented cases including the 2024 Semnan earthquake rumor. For counsel, communications leads and family offices auditing first-hour readiness.
How it happensEarly-window capture
Who Decides What Your Death Meant
Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death on 11 July 2026 drew competing public accounts of what it meant within days. First written on the third day and revised twelve weeks later, the brief traces which interpretations took hold, by what means, and what each achieved. Its evidence is the medical examiner's statement, the legislative and succession record, and an early platform snapshot. For principals considering how a death in their own circle could be used by others.
How it happensEarly-window capture
What Your Silence Leaves Open
After a light aircraft struck Beijing's CITIC Tower on 26 June 2026, outside observers had footage and official silence for most of a week. This applied case, read through CB-113 and CB-114, follows the explanations that circulated and asks what the silence did to the questions observers could and could not close. Built from open reporting and the authorities' own statements and regulations. For analysts weighing an incident before the public record is complete.
How it happensSuppression backfire
The Deletion Became Part of the Story
On 26 June 2026 a light aircraft struck Beijing's CITIC Tower, and domestic posts were scrubbed within hours while video circulated abroad. This brief reconstructs the record and asks what deletion achieves once material has left the environment an actor controls, and when control of the story changes hands. Built from open reporting, two official statements and the comparative cases in CB-113-A. For family offices and counsel weighing removal of material about a principal's own incident.
How it happensSuppression backfire
Your Statement Will Arrive Too Late
The killing of UnitedHealthcare's chief executive, the Southport attack and the false nuclear-test reading of a 2024 Iranian earthquake each became a contest over meaning while officials were still establishing facts. This brief asks what an organization can prepare in advance for that interval, and for the person a crowd wrongly names, without hurrying verification. Built from those cases, peer-reviewed research on how news spreads, and insurance market data. For principals and communications leads who would have to speak first.
How it happensEarly-window capture
AI risk doesn’t require AGI or consciousness. Scale, automation, and weak accountability already create real-world harm today.
JFK's Arithmetic
A chapter of JFK's Arithmetic, the companion fiction to the JFK 2026 scenario, set in the first seventeen minutes after the death.
How it happensEarly-window capture